Sibheke phambili ku-2024, sikholelwa ukuthi isidingo sezimboni kulindeleke ukuthi siqhubeke nesivinini esilinganiselwe sokululama, inani eliphakeme lokukhululwa kwamandla okukhiqiza lilonke lizophela, izindleko ze-pulp yezinkuni, iphepha elibi, amanani amalahle ngokuyinhloko ukushintshashintsha okuphakathi. , futhi inzuzo yemboni kulindeleke ukuthi ilungiswe kancane kancane.
Imboni yephepha yaziwa ngokuthi "i-barometer of ukusetshenziswa", ngokutholwa kokuqala kwendawo yokusetshenziswa nokugeleza kwabantu, ukuchuma kwephepha lamasiko kuye kwabuyiselwa kakhulu, ivolumu ehamba phambili, intengo kanye nenzuzo kuye kwakhuliswa kakhulu, isidingo sephepha lokugoqa nephepha elikhethekile siphinde silandele ukuthi izimpahla ezibonakalayo zinokulungiswa okusesilinganisweni ngamadijithi aphansi aphansi, izintengo zomkhiqizo we-2023 kanye nenzuzo nakho kuthuthukisiwe kakhulu. Njengoba sibheke ngabomvu ku-2024, kulindeleke ukuthi i-zero yenhlalo iqhubeke nendlela yokululama ngokulinganisela, isidingo sephepha lamasiko sizokhula kancane kancane, futhi isidingo sephepha lokugoqa (iphepha lebhodi lebhokisi, ikhadi elimhlophe) nephepha elikhethekile lizoqhubeka nokusimama amadijithi aphakathi nendawo eyodwa. Sidinga nje ukulinda ukuthi uhlangothi lokunikezela kanye nesidingo lubuyele kubhalansi eqinile.
Njengamanje, imboni yephepha isekupheleni komzuliswano omusha wokunwetshwa okuphezulu (okuqhutshwa yi-boom peak ka-2020-21, kanye nokukhathazeka kwamabhizinisi ngobunzima bokwanda ngemuva kwenqubomgomo eqinile "yekhabhoni ekabili"). Ukunwetshwa kwamandla kugxilwe ngo-2022-23 (ibhodi lebhokisi lephepha likathayela liphinde libe nokushaqeka okwengeziwe okungaba ngu-50% wamaphepha angenisiwe). Ngo-2024, silindele ukuthi ibhalansi yokunikezwa kanye nesidingo sephepha lamasiko kanye nephepha elithile elincanyana elikhethekile liqine, futhi umthamo omusha wokukhiqiza webhokisi lebhokisi lephepha likathayela, amakhadibhodi amhlophe kanye nephepha elithile elikhethekile kusazoba phakathi nedijithi eyodwa ephezulu. , futhi uhlangothi lokuhlinzeka nesidingo luncike ekuthuthukisweni kwesidingo. Kodwa-ke, kusukela ohlelweni olukhona lokukhiqiza, silindele ukuthi ingcindezi yomthamo omusha wokukhiqiza izodamba kakhulu ngo-2025-26, njengesidingo sokusheshisa ukulungiswa, ukunikezwa okuphelele kwemboni kanye nohlangothi lwesidingo kulindeleke ukuthi lubuyele ebhalansi eqinile kusengaphambili. . Ukwengeza, amabhizinisi amaphepha ahamba phambili azongena esikhathini sokuvuna, izindleko zawo kusukela "ku-roller coaster" ukuze zibushelelezi, okuholela ekuhlukaniseni + ukuhlanganiswa kwesakhiwo esikhathini sokuvuna. Ngenxa yokungqubuzana okuthile phakathi kokunikezwa kanye nesidingo, inzuzo yemboni yamaphepha ngo-2022 yahlushwa ukukhishwa kwamanani amalahle kanye ne-pulp, futhi intengo yezinto ezingavuthiwe yehle kakhulu ngo-2023, futhi ukuncintisana kwentengo yephepha eliyisisekelo kwakhula, kwaholela ekutheni ukulahlekelwa yinzuzo yezimboni. Izinselelo ezibhekene nohlangothi lwezindleko zemboni kulindeleke ukuthi zehle kakhulu ngo-2024: silindele ukuthi amanani entengo ye-pulp aqhubeke nokuguquguquka azungeze ama- $ 600 / ton, futhi amanani entengo yephepha elilahlekile aqhubeke nokuwohloka, okulindeleke ukuthi asekele ukutholwa kabusha okunesizotha sekukonke. amaholo embonini. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukuze kube lula ukuguquguquka kwezindleko, imizamo eminingi ehamba phambili yokukhuthaza ukuhlukahluka kwemikhiqizo, ukuphela okuphezulu, ngakolunye uhlangothi, ikhuthaza ngenkuthalo ukuhlanganiswa kwe-pulp yehlathi kanye nokwakheka kwephepha, 2023 kuya ku-2024, imikhiqizo ehlukahlukene kanye nezinkuni ezenziwe ekhaya. I-pulp yalezi zinkampani kulindeleke ukuthi ingene esikhathini sokuvuna, kulindeleke ukuthi sikhulise umkhawulo wokuphepha wenkampani kanye nomfutho wokukhula.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Dec-11-2023